flipped into Stock Ideas. Guardant Health thinks that its Guardant360 liquid biopsy has a $6 billion addressable annual market in the U.S. alone. LUNAR-2 could enable the detection of cancer at early stages. Stocks. Janssen Biotech has already teamed up with Guardant to develop and commercialize Guardant360 as a companion diagnostic for its experimental NSCLC therapy, amivantamab. 0. LUNAR-2 has a much larger addressable market of more than $30 billion. I’m convinced that Guardant Health can deliver mind-blowing returns over the next 10 years as well. Nearly $36,250. 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Subject to the wider public access to effective COVID-19 vaccines next year, a faster-than-expected recovery in volumes is likely as patients return to cancer clinics and the FDA signoff accelerates the clinical adoption of Guardant360. Keith began writing for the Fool in 2012 and focuses primarily on healthcare investing topics. Assuming ~37.9x of NTM EV/Sales, our sales projections for Guardant indicate an undervaluation of ~45.0 – 49.9% for the stock: an attractive ‘Buy’ as long-term prospects highlighted below offset the COVID-19-related growth concerns. With EV at 28.5x of 12-month forward sales, the company trades at a ~24.8% discount to its 2019 average of ~37.9x. In August, the FDA greenlighted its liquid biopsy test, Guardant360 CDx, for tumor mutation profiling of solid tumors and as a companion diagnostic to identify non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients suitable for Tagrisso® (osimertinib). Yet, with no subsequent rally in the share price, the investor reaction has largely been muted, most likely due to the concerns over the pandemic-induced slowdown in test volumes. Returns as of 12/15/2020. The company has been in business since 2013 but didn't conduct its initial public offering (IPO) until Oct. 4, 2018. Why? If you had invested in the stock at its IPO, your initial investment would have nearly quadrupled in 20 months.That’s a whole lot better than tripling in a decade. In a separate transaction which took place on 6/30/2020, the institutional investor, TIAA-CREF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT bought 1.1 million shares of the company’s stock. At that point, an initial investment of $10,000 in Guardant Health's IPO would have been worth $46,714. Investment Thesis With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. Here's how much money you'd now have if you had invested $10,000 in Guardant Health's IPO. The stock market plunged as the novel coronavirus and the disease that it causes, COVID-19, spread across the world. Investors scoop up shares because of a fear of missing out. Gets Its Catalyst And Trades Up: Twitter Inc. (TWTR), Guardant Health Inc. (GH) By. By comparison, the company's total revenue last year was $214.4 million. With our more upbeat sales forecasts, the 2019 average in NTM EV/Sales indicates a sharp premium. Investment Thesis With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. During 2019, Guardant Health's share price more than doubled. Yet, amid pandemic-related concerns over its revenue growth, the first-ever regulatory win hasn’t sparked the share price rally that usually follows such announcements. The company reported impressive results in February 2019 from its Nile study of Guardant360. The lukewarm growth forecasts seen in consensus revenue and the discount in trading multiple compared to the historical average underscore the concerns. Guardant Health held its initial public offering (IPO) in October 2018. Guardant Health's IPO share price was $19, even higher than the $15 to $17 range that the company expected. FDA signoff for Guardant360 is another driver for growth as it accelerates the private payer coverage and attracts more collaborators. Companies . After back-to-back declines sequentially, the total test volumes in Q3 2020 have jumped ~21.3% from the previous quarter. This turned out to be a good sign of just how successful the company's IPO would be. Guardant recorded the highest ever quarterly gross margins in Q3 2020. The most promising test, under development seeking FDA approval and CMS coverage, the LUNAR-2 assay targets early cancer detection in asymptomatic and high-risk individuals. By comparison, the company's … User Sign In. Roche (SIX:ROG; OTCQB:RHHBY), Basel, Switzerland. That's still a fantastic performance even with the recent coronavirus-fueled decline. Investment Thesis. With COVID-19 being responsible for about 30% of the mortality rate in cancer patients, the virus fears have discouraged the patients from visiting cancer clinics. The institutional investor bought 8.7 million shares of the stock in a transaction took place on 6/30/2020. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). If Guardant Health can capture a significant share of these markets, its long-term returns could make the 360% gain since its IPO look like chump change. Investment Thesis. With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. WhatsApp. The lukewarm growth forecasts seen in consensus revenue and the … Twitter. Guardant Health. One of the most important of these was the decision by Palmetto GBA to make Guardant360 the first (and, so far, only) liquid biopsy to receive broad coverage for use in most types of advanced solid tumors. The burst in test volume growth seen in 2019 has come to a grinding halt. The key to this success was the skyrocketing demand for Guardant Health's two liquid biopsy products, Guardant360 and GuardantOMNI. But with COVID-19 making a resurgence in the U.S., the clinical test volumes, generating ~47.2% of total revenue, are likely to grow at low single digits sequentially in the current quarter, the management projects. The one investment that's never let long-term investors down. Both tests feed the development of the company’s LUNAR program. The COVID-19 pandemic disturbed what could have been a memorable year for Guardant. When they arrive on the scene, investors flock to them. Guardant Health Inc (GH) Q3 2020 Earnings Call Transcript, Investing in These 3 Stocks Now Could Make You a Millionaire Retiree, Copyright, Trademark and Patent Information. The test volumes from biopharma customers, generating ~37.1% of the top-line, will expand at a similar rate to the past quarter. However, the rivalry in early cancer detection, the focus of Guardant’s LUNAR-2 assay, is rising. window.SA = {"App":{"name":"SA","fullName":"Seeking Alpha","type":"regular","host":"https://seekingalpha.com","financeApiHost":"https://finance.api.seekingalpha.com","emailHost":"https://email.seekingalpha.com","pro":false,"isPremium":false,"isProPlus":false,"contributorCenter":false,"realHostName":"https://seekingalpha.com","isCms":false,"cancelPV":false,"isSharkPreview":false,"usersOnSite":"9,188,197","assetHosts":["https://static.seekingalpha.com","https://static1.seekingalpha.com","https://static2.seekingalpha.com","https://static3.seekingalpha.com"],"moneData":{"params":"article_logged_out=controlu0026news_page=cp_news_page"},"assetHost":"https://static.seekingalpha.com","userEchoHost":"https://feedback.seekingalpha.com","unbounceHost":"https://subscriptions.seekingalpha.com","env":{"dev":false,"staging":false,"production":true,"test":false},"gaAccountId":"UA-142576245-1","pianoAccountId":"CWJjPp7cpu","comscoreAccountId":8500672,"fbAppId":"2459764930747368","googleClientId":"853676697728-j4qpq4pfialt14ibl9ppa3tk37m6kc9e.apps.googleusercontent.com","twitterAccountName":"SeekingAlpha","rollbarToken":"5edf110be2fc4cecb32637fc421111e2","perimeterXAppId":"PXxgCxM9By","embedlyKey":"a6da93fdfc49472099ce63260954716b","mp":false,"chat":{"host":"https://rc.seekingalpha.com"},"oneSignalAppId":"32a623ea-4435-442f-a7e1-0ef070124c32","gptHeaderTest":null,"allowAdBlockPopup":null},"pageConfig":{"Refresher":{"active":false},"Data":{"article":{"id":4390753,"title":"Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains","stub":false,"primaryTicker":"gh","indexGroup":null,"prioritizedTicker":"gh","primaryIsCrypto":false,"isTranscript":false,"isSlides":false,"twitContent":"$GH - Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The deceleration compared to ~22.5% YoY growth in Q3 2020 mirrors the management comments. The COVID-19 case counts are rising in record numbers in the U.S., and according to health experts, the worst has yet to come as winter approaches. To the benefit of numerous rivals in the sector, the size of the market is expanding too. Guardant Health's shares sank as much as 34% off the highs from earlier in the year before rebounding. Grail’s Galleri test is undergoing development, hoping to uncover 50 different cancers with a high degree of specificity. The regulatory signoff should raise hopes for Guardant’s broad portfolio of cancer tests, which aim to detect all stages of the disease through liquid biopsy. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. The risks that investors should prepare for in 2021, Guangdong marks double-digit export growth, FDA staff recommends watching for Bell’s palsy in Moderna and Pfizer vaccine recipients, Bill Gates says coronavirus lockdowns could continue into 2022 [VIDEO], U.S. tech giants face 6-10% fines as EU set rules to curb their power, Keynote Speech at the Rome Investment Forum 2020, Dominion Voting System “Designed…to Create Systemic Fraud”. I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. Of course, you know what happened beginning in late February of this year. But margin expansion hasn’t offset the impact from shrinking revenue growth, and for the second quarter in a row, the operating loss has widened by multiple times from a year ago. UBS SECURITIES LLC bought a fresh place in Twitter Inc. (NYSE:TWTR). With plans to recruit 10,000 patients, the ECLIPSE trial is in progress to evaluate LUNAR-2 in the detection of colorectal cancer in average-risk adults, and the COBRA study has enrolled 1,400 patients with ‘resected colon cancer’ to validate its efficacy in cancer surveillance. The potential U.S. market for LUNAR-1 is around $15 billion. Since its IPO in 2018, the company scored its most significant clinical milestone. Tag: Guardant Health Inc. Companies. In contrast, Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT), a rival in liquid biopsy-based cancer detection, trades at ~38.8x in terms of NTM EV/Sales with only a ~9.6% discount to its 2019 average. A subsequent respite in the virus spread will likely accelerate the recovery in test volumes as patients eventually return to doctors’ offices to seek cancer care, something they cannot postpone indefinitely. The recent FDA signoff for Guardant360 hasn’t fueled the expected share price rally in Guardant. Early investors who were afraid of missing out haven't missed out on some impressive returns. I think that this stock has the kind of X factor that every investor should like. This study pitted Guardant Health's liquid biopsy against standard-of-care tissue testing in detecting key biomarkers in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). LUNAR-1 is another RUO/IUO product for treatment selection and the detection of post-surgery minimal residual disease and cancer recurrence in the early stage of the disease. Let's conquer your financial goals together...faster. Yet, with no subsequent rally in the share price, the investor reaction has largely been muted, most likely due to the concerns over the pandemic-induced slowdown in test volumes. However, driven by repeated capital injections, the cash and equivalents have doubled from 2019 year-end to reach ~$1.0 billion in Q3 2020. Cumulative Growth of a $10,000 Investment in Stock Advisor Calculated by Time-Weighted Return. The total Institutional investors and hedge funds own 84.80% of … Stock Advisor launched in February of 2002. Facebook. The ongoing clinical trials will only accelerate the rising cash burn. The initial investment has delivered a return of over 360% in less than 20 months. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4390753-guardant-health-fda-signoff-and-vaccine-optimism-to-materialize-gains?source=tweet 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